Why Your Metrics Are Lying to You, and Quietly Killing Revenue

Kyle Olmstead
Oct 23
3 min read

Drops in clicks, opens, or app activity aren’t “small blips,” they’re the early warning signs your customers are slipping away.

Here’s how to catch them before it’s too late.

Let’s get real. Most brands are TERRIBLE at spotting churn.

You look at a 2% drop in email opens and think, “Eh, probably fine.” Or a slight dip in push notifications? “Users will come back.” Spoiler: they won’t. Not on their own.

Here’s the thing: metrics are lying to you. Not maliciously, they’re just…lazy. They tell you what’s happened, not what’s about to happen. And if you’re ignoring the subtle signals, you’re letting money, and loyalty, walk right out the door.

The Metrics That Actually Matter

Forget vanity metrics. Clicks, opens, and page views only tell half the story. Churn hides in the gaps. Here’s what I watch for, and why it matters:

Email opens dropping but clicks steady: People are skimming or ignoring, but still curious. Warning: curiosity fades fast.
SMS click-throughs plateau: They’re not actively unsubscribing yet, but engagement is cooling. Think of it as a slow fade.
Push notifications ignored: Silent but deadly. Ignored notifications = disengaged users = potential churn.

Basically, every “minor dip” is a mini alarm bell. Treat it like one.

Early Intervention Wins

When someone stops opening, clicking, or interacting, that’s your cue to act, not panic, but act smart. Here’s a few hypothetical moves I’d make if I were running your emails, texts, and push flows:

Behavior-triggered win-backs: Set automated flows that recognize the first signs of disengagement. Maybe they skipped two classes or didn’t open your last 3 emails. Boom, personalized outreach hits.
Tiered urgency nudges: Not a discount blast, ugh. Maybe a reminder of unused credits, a sneak peek at an upcoming product, or a “we missed you” note that actually feels human.
Content-driven hooks: Did they love a certain workout style or product category? Send more of that. Relevance beats desperation every time.

Unlocking Revenue Beyond Memberships

If you’re a studio, gym, or fitness apparel brand, here’s the brutal truth: you’re leaving money on the table. Memberships are only part of the puzzle. People buy more if you guide them right.

Think of your revenue as three streams:

Classes & appointments: Automated reminders, personalized upsells for bundles, or seasonal promotions.
Retail & apparel: Suggest what complements what they already bought, no heavy discounts needed.
Membership upgrades: Reward loyalty with early access, exclusive perks, or VIP-style messaging.

All this works best when you layer email, SMS, and push notifications into a smart, behavior-based funnel. You’re not spamming, you’re predicting what they need, when they need it.

Cross-Sells, Upsells & Abandoned Cart Recovery

Timing is EVERYTHING. You’ve got to sell the right thing, to the right person, at the right time.

Here’s a quick hypothetical framework:

Abandoned carts: 3-step approach. Immediate nudge, a friendly reminder after 24 hours, then a “did you forget?” message highlighting benefits, not discounts.
Cross-sells: Suggest items that enhance their purchase. Bought a yoga mat? Offer a matching strap, water bottle, or towel. Done tastefully, people actually appreciate it.
Upsells: Think in tiers. If they booked a standard class, show the advanced version. If they bought one tee, offer the matching shorts or hoodie. Keep it contextual, keep it subtle.

Bottom line: well-timed, behavior-based messaging = more revenue without being “salesy.”

How I Spot the Red Flags Before It’s Too Late

Imagine this: a user hasn’t opened your last 3 emails, clicked 0 links, and ignored your last 2 push notifications. Most brands shrug. I see a pattern. Early churn is happening.

Here’s a mental checklist:

Are they engaging less across all channels, not just one?
Is the decline consistent or sporadic?
Could timing or frequency be the culprit?

Then, I set a flow. Not a “buy now or else” flow. A thoughtful sequence designed to bring them back into the fold, reinforce value, and make them feel seen, not sold to.

Key Takeaways

Stop trusting surface metrics. Engagement dips are often the tip of the churn iceberg.
Behavior trumps volume. Look at patterns, not numbers in isolation.
Automate thoughtfully. Use flows to re-engage, upsell, and cross-sell without feeling pushy.
Revenue exists beyond the obvious. Memberships are just one layer, retail, classes, upgrades, and perks all add up.
Timing is your secret weapon. Right message, right moment = happy customer = repeat revenue.

So, here’s my parting thought: metrics aren’t enemies, they’re messengers. Ignore them, and your churn quietly swells. Read them, respond with intention, and you unlock loyalty, revenue, and lifetime value you didn’t even realize was slipping.

Are you ready to stop guessing which customers will churn, and start turning every dip into an opportunity to keep them coming back?